With Pérez’s contract extension at Red Bull secured, what’s next for Pierre Gasly?

Now that Sergio Pérez has officially extended his contract with Red Bull, Pierre Gasly's future with the Austrian team is becoming increasingly uncertain.

Sergio Pérez, the Mexican driver from Guadalajara, has signed a new two-year contract with Red Bull, rewarding his excellent start to the season and his support for Max Verstappen in 2021, when the Dutchman was in contention for the title. Prior to this announcement, Pérez's contract was set to expire at the end of the current season, and several drivers were being considered to replace him. Pierre Gasly, who was a logical candidate to partner the reigning champion, was among them. After a difficult first stint at Milton Kidd in early 2019, the Frenchman regained his form at Toro Rosso/Alpha Tauri.

Flashback

The summer of 2018 was marked by a shock in the paddock: Daniel Ricciardo announced his transfer to Renault. Cyril Abiteboul made one of the biggest signings in recent years, leaving Red Bull to quickly find a replacement for the Australian. Pierre Gasly, a long-time junior driver at Red Bull and Toro Rosso driver since late 2017, emerged as the natural choice for the senior team. The news was announced on August 20, 2018, confirming that the Normandy native would join the sister team of the four-time constructors' world champion for the 2019 season. His promotion was a reward for his solid performances with the Faenza-based team, where he had outperformed his teammate Brendon Hartley in qualifying and scored a memorable fourth place in Bahrain. Meanwhile, Toro Rosso reshuffled its lineup, bringing back Daniil Kvyat and signing Thai rookie Alexander Albon, fresh off a third-place finish in the 2018 Formula 2 championship behind George Russell and Lando Norris.

Half a season in hell

Gasly quickly realized that the pressure in a top team was different from that in a midfield team. Christian Horner and, above all, Helmut Marko do not mince their words with drivers when results are not forthcoming. The Frenchman learned this the hard way during the 2019 winter tests, causing a serious accident at turn 9 in Barcelona, then another, which prompted Red Bull to interrupt testing due to a lack of spare parts. Marko publicly stated that Gasly was not on the same level as Verstappen and that the team would focus on the Dutch driver in the fight for the title. From the very first race in Australia, the comparison was harsh: Gasly finished eleventh while Verstappen took the podium behind the two Mercedes of Bottas and Hamilton. Over the next twelve races, Verstappen consistently finished in the top five, winning in Austria and Germany, while Gasly's best result was fourth place at Silverstone, the only time he finished ahead of his teammate. By the summer break, Verstappen had almost three times as many points as Gasly. Marko added fuel to the fire by stating that the Frenchman was not living up to expectations. At the same time, Albon was performing well at Toro Rosso, equaling his more experienced teammate's points in Bahrain, and despite trailing Kvyat by eleven points at the break, he was already tipped to replace Gasly at Milton Kidd. On August 12, the decision was made: Gasly returned to Toro Rosso and Albon made the reverse move. The rebirth at Toro Rosso/Alpha Tauri When the season resumed in Belgium, all eyes were on the two Red Bull teams. How would Gasly react to his demotion? Would Albon be able to hold his own against a driver of Verstappen's caliber? Both exceeded expectations in the second half of the year. Gasly showed resilience, finding comfort in a car that suited his style. He scored points in five of the remaining nine races and made his mark at Interlagos by defending his second place against Lewis Hamilton, sending a strong message to his former team. Albon also achieved solid results, finishing in the top six on several occasions, and both drivers secured new contracts for 2020.

The 2020 season, delayed by the Covid-19 pandemic, saw Gasly's team renamed Alpha Tauri, Red Bull's new team named after a fashion brand. He outperformed his teammate Kvyat, scoring points in ten of the seventeen races and ending the year with a surprise victory at Monza, the first French victory in Formula 1 since Olivier Panis' win at Monaco in 1996.

From hope to doubt

In 2021, Gasly teamed up with rookie Yuki Tsunoda. He qualified in the top six in most sessions, missing Q3 only four times, and finished ninth in the drivers' standings, his best season to date. One of the highlights came in Baku, where he secured the third podium finish of his career after fiercely defending his position against Charles Leclerc's Ferrari on the final lap. At that point, the Red Bull hierarchy began to take a renewed interest in the No. 10 seat. Although Gasly remained a candidate to join Verstappen, Sergio Pérez, who had taken Albon's place at the start of the year, was still behind the Dutchman in terms of performance and results. The final Grand Prix races of the season turned everything upside down. Pérez did everything he could to support his teammate in his quest for the title, securing three consecutive podium finishes in Turkey, the United States, and then at his home race in Mexico. The recent Monaco Grand Prix winner proved to be a crucial ally for the future world champion in Abu Dhabi. By keeping Hamilton at bay for more than a lap, he gave Verstappen the opportunity to close the gap, allowing the Dutch driver to win the final sprint and the championship. Their partnership worked perfectly, and Pérez fulfilled his role as the ideal teammate, earning him a contract extension for another season. The year 2022 brings a shake-up in the technical regulations, and all teams are hoping to come out on top. Winter testing has already shown that Red Bull will fight to defend its drivers' and constructors' championship titles, while AlphaTauri seems to be lagging behind. Gasly feels less comfortable in the AT03 than in the AT02, and the Honda engine (renamed Red Bull Powertrains) has proven unreliable. Instead of fighting for a place in the top five as in the previous two years, he is now battling for the last places in the top ten that earn points.

Pérez, who uses the same engine as his AlphaTauri teammate, has also suffered from reliability issues, retiring from the very first race in Bahrain. After that setback, he bounced back by taking pole position in Saudi Arabia and consistently finishing in the top four, before claiming an impressive victory on the streets of Monaco. Although he has always put the team first, as he demonstrated in Barcelona, Pérez can now dream of a world title. The two-year extension offered by his team puts him in a strong position and definitively closes the door on a possible return for Gasly to Milton Keynes.

In F1 yes, but in which team?

Let's start with the teams that have already confirmed their driver line-ups for next year: the three leaders Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull. Barring an extremely unlikely turnaround, Gasly will not be joining any of these teams in 2023, and Alpine can be added to the list. If Fernando Alonso leaves the French team, his seat would go to third driver Oscar Piastri. Midfield teams such as McLaren and Aston Martin could become interesting options for the Frenchman. Despite having a contract until the end of 2023, Daniel Ricciardo's future at Woking seems precarious, with some suggesting he could be replaced before the end of the season. Could Gasly's overtaking of the Australian at the Bureau de Tabac corner in Monaco be a clue? At Aston Martin, the situation is different: Sebastian Vettel will most likely leave F1 at the end of the season, and rumors link Mick Schumacher or even Fernando Alonso to the “green” team. Lawrence Stroll could also be considering Gasly. Williams could have a seat available next year if Nicholas Latifi's poor performance leads to his departure, but it's hard to imagine Gasly dropping down the rankings to stay in F1. The same reasoning applies to Haas, which has posted performances this season comparable to those of AlphaTauri on certain circuits. At Alfa Romeo, Guanyu Zhou has signed a one-year contract, with the Stellantis-owned team hoping that its appeal in the Chinese market will grow. If Zhou were to leave, team principal Frédéric Vasseur would likely turn to Théo Pourchaire to replace him. That leaves only one realistic option: staying at AlphaTauri. This would be a disappointment for Gasly's ambitions, especially as his car seems to be losing ground this season, but the driver market could heat up in the coming weeks. A driver of Gasly's caliber, young but experienced, with a Grand Prix victory and stints in a top team, is unlikely to go unnoticed by team principals.