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Red Bull has put considerable effort into perfecting its F1 car. After winning the 2022 championship with the RB18, the RB19 is already considered a formidable competitor and the favorite for the 2023 title.
After three days of testing, it is still impossible to establish a clear ranking, as each team followed very different programs and had to deal with very varied conditions. Take Alpine, for example. Its best times were set with the tires that will be used in the Grand Prix, not with the softest compounds. While Pirelli will bring the C1, C2, and C3 to the race, most of this week's fastest times were set on C4 or C5 tires, which means that Alpine's lap times are probably below their true potential. Looking at Max Verstappen's laps on C3s and Sergio Perez's on C5s, the RB19 consistently tops the timesheets by a comfortable margin. Barring any reliability issues, Red Bull looks hard to beat. Charles Leclerc and team principal Frédéric Vasseur both admitted that Ferrari was lagging behind, even though they were satisfied with their testing program, which is not surprising. Red Bull won the 2022 championship, while Ferrari suffered numerous retirements, and the RB18 proved faster than the Scuderia on equal terms. It follows that the 2023 developments of the two title contenders are unlikely to upset this balance. Red Bull is expected to start the season in the lead in Bahrain, but the penalty imposed by the FIA for exceeding the budget cap, which forces the Austrian team to reduce its wind tunnel and CFD work, could narrow the gap as the year progresses, potentially adding some intrigue to the finale.
Looking at the numbers, even with C4 tires and a shorter stint than last year, Red Bull still posted a 2.8-second advantage per lap. We don't know the exact fuel load or engine mode, but the gap is significant, indicating solid progress since the 2022 Bahrain tests, when teams logged numerous laps and engineers began refining settings under the new regulations.
Red Bull's development trajectory matches or exceeds that of its rivals, with only subtle evolutions of the car concept and no major redesigns, reflecting the stability of their technical direction.
When comparing Verstappen's times in C3 (the compounds used for Saturday qualifying), he is half a second faster than the leading McLaren and 1.1 seconds ahead of Alpine's Pierre Gasly. Fuel loads remain unknown, but both runs were relatively long. The data confirms that Red Bull is currently in the lead and is expected to remain so.
